Weekend Commentary

Political turmoil and violence in oil industries in Nigeria and Saudi Arab drove up oil prices again
(currently at $62.91 a barrel). Treasury prices finished weaker. The benchmark 10-year note ended down 2/32 at 99 13/32 with a yield of 4.5691%. Gold futures also climbed after the Saudi news of violence came out. The front-month contract closed up $6.60 at $554.60 an ounce (This is about 30% gain from May 11 when we advised our readers to accumulate gold).

Probably the tame core-inflation figures released this week or perhaps the confidence of the market on the Fed that it would continue to keep inflation low -- somehow these factors worked together to allow a drop in mortgage rate this week after continuous hike in last four weeks.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly report for this week, the 30-year Fixed mortgage rate was at a national average 6.26%, down from 6.28% a week earlier. Last year at this time the loan averaged 5.69%. The average on the 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.89% from 5.91% last week. A year ago, this rate averaged at 5.22%.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.96%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 5.95%. A year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 5.05%. The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.32%, down from last week when it averaged 5.36%. The one-year ARM averaged 4.16% at this time last year.